Gold extended to a new all-time high of 1447.40 on Thursday before succumbing
to profit taking. The corrective activity was initially triggered by silver’s
rapid surge to a 31-year high above $38.00, but physical buying interest quickly
established support in both markets. While the Thursday’s reversal day in gold
(outside-day/lower-close) may give some technicians pause, the pattern was not
repeated in silver, which eked out a slightly better close. While further profit
taking ahead of the weekend can not be ruled out, the dominant uptrends in both
Gold crusher and silver are likely to continue to garner
support from broad-based risk aversion flows and ongoing dollar weakness.
Concerns about the Japanese nuclear disaster came back to
the fore yesterday amid speculation that the number 3 reactor core at the
stricken Fukushima nuclear plant may have been breached. Standing water in the
lower level of the reactor building was reported to contain radiation levels
10,000 times higher than normal cooling system water. Two workers were
hospitalized with radiation burns after wading through the standing water. The
latest worries have prompted a widening of the evacuation area by nearly 60%,
from a 12 to a 19 mile radius.
There continues to be a fair amount of
confusion about specific roles in the UN sanctioned military action in Libya.
After much squabbling, NATO has agreed to take over control of the Libyan no-fly
zone. However, they remain reluctant to take Gold mining equipment control of the much more difficult and
dangerous missions to protect civilians (and presumably rebels) against attack
from pro-Gaddafi forces. Once the combatants are mixed together in an urban
warfare environment like Misrata, differentiating the "good guys" from the "bad
guys" from the air becomes all-but impossible. So far US forces are doing the
lion’s share of these missions, creating political complications for the Obama
administration, which promised a quick transition for US forces to support
roles.
Syria is the latest country in the region to experience heightened
political unrest, leading to bloodshed. Protests were seen in Deraa, Damascus
and Hama on Friday. There were reports of more gunfire in Deraa, where as many
as 25 protesters were killed earlier in the week. Preliminary reports suggest
another 20 anti-government protesters may have been killed today. Yemen’s
embattled President Ali Abdullah Saleh indicated that he is ready to give up
power, but only if he can leave Yemen in "safe hands." If Yemen becomes the
third country in the region to successfully oust its autocratic leader, protests
in places like Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, among others may intensify.
Oil prices remain underpinned by continued unrest in the Middle East and
North Africa. Additionally, as the nuclear crisis in Japan extends into its
third week, there is a growing consensus that the world will become even more
reliant on increasingly scarce carbon-based fuels, such as oil. In fact, French
President Sarkozy pledged that any nuclear reactor in Europe that doesn’t pass
planned stress tests will be shut down. Heightened demand will push the price of
such fuels relentlessly higher and threaten some countries with a slide back
into recession. In the US, that is likely to lead to further loose monetary
policy, which will keep downward pressure on the dollar. A weak dollar is
generally supportive to gold.
High oil prices will also weigh on the nascent
recovery in the European economy, but that is probably the least of their
worries right now. The collapse of the Portuguese government earlier in the week
contributed to a two notch downgrade in their sovereign debt by S&P to BBB.
S&P cited political uncertainty and eroding market confidence, warning that
further downgrades may be in the offing. Nonetheless, the Portuguese
"care-taker" government steadfastly maintains Gold ore crusher that they don’t need a bailout. One market
analyst put it quite succinctly, saying that Lisbon is "delusional".
Amid
the rising expectation that Portugal is on the verge of tapping the EU bailout
facility, ministers at the eurozone summit in Brussels pressed ahead with plans
to create a permanent European Stability Mechanism. There were rumblings today
that the EU planned to hold the UK to an agreement signed by outgoing Chancellor
Darling to contribute to the bailout facility, even though the UK is not a
member of the EU. Many members of the British parliament, and of course UK
taxpayers are "furious". With England in the midst of its own financial crisis,
they wonder where those moneys are going to come from. Well, the Bank of England
can always print it.
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